Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 21.283914 25.596185 30.351746 35.957452 42.355596 49.401468 57.717323
2025-06-29 15.340658 21.063292 28.022131 36.982933 48.082261 61.242026 77.875404
2025-07-06 10.786461 16.605689 24.287890 34.909758 48.926409 66.487293 89.812026
2025-07-13 8.834798 14.936100 23.537640 36.102760 53.489022 76.165606 107.369032
2025-07-20 7.347889 13.546995 22.823181 37.046694 57.546890 85.206121 124.395604
2025-07-27 6.295529 12.571371 22.482281 38.342033 62.018711 94.893571 142.624333
2025-08-03 5.385202 11.624486 21.999745 39.279608 65.922837 103.888597 160.225135
2025-08-10 4.383947 10.299319 20.693120 38.740442 67.501497 109.570256 173.364410
2025-08-17 3.730105 9.472105 20.075121 39.174537 70.495348 117.341875 189.694527
2025-08-24 3.099597 8.546270 19.136444 38.938458 72.353226 123.444182 203.776939
2025-08-31 2.445125 7.405767 17.623573 37.524949 72.154338 126.352113 213.184306
2025-09-07 2.112662 6.910486 17.261083 38.077695 75.169468 134.264486 230.296732
2025-09-14 1.643226 5.990075 15.985223 36.974095 75.567798 138.506809 242.687436
2025-09-21 1.423782 5.661284 15.904075 38.136228 79.996179 149.457230 266.006402
2025-09-28 1.033739 4.700153 14.253190 36.018512 78.422717 150.546599 273.904071
2025-10-05 0.902714 4.481967 14.265844 37.241849 82.952350 161.873012 298.418428
2025-10-12 0.778187 4.236930 14.167566 38.209321 87.046330 172.618111 322.348488
2025-10-19 0.686076 4.071681 14.239020 39.536720 91.883704 184.804782 349.005776
2025-10-26 0.592710 3.860807 14.152320 40.497360 96.056268 195.992664 374.363305
2025-11-02 0.467144 3.447718 13.433896 39.944944 97.211268 201.940146 391.202261
2025-11-09 0.390474 3.210483 13.163396 40.389709 100.357974 211.500594 414.359340
2025-11-16 0.311343 2.907531 12.633053 40.147830 102.075038 218.543853 433.445721
2025-11-23 0.226086 2.495539 11.662618 38.699441 101.173885 220.769050 444.329897